The Hundreds Report: Three Markets, Three Stories, One Direction
Southern California Industrial | 100,000 to 200,000 SF For Lease
*March 2026*
The Southern California industrial market in the 100,000 to 200,000 SF range continues to reset. This month we are introducing a new tool alongside our Hundreds Report: a rolling 12 month change report that tracks every meaningful shift in this size segment across the Inland Empire, Los Angeles, and Orange County. New listings, absorption, rental rate adjustments, investment sale activity, brokerage team changes, and new construction deliveries. All of it, across all three markets, updated monthly.
Here is what the data is telling us. And this time, it is telling us something different depending on where you look.
The headline numbers
Over the past 12 months, 220 new availabilities totaling nearly 29.6 million SF have come to market in the 100 to 200K range across Southern California. Only 64 listings were removed during that same period, representing roughly 7.5 million SF. That is a ratio of nearly 4 to 1: for every space that gets leased or withdrawn, four new ones show up.
The pipeline has not slowed down. Q1 2026 is on pace to be one of the most active quarters for new supply, with 52 new listings already in January and February alone.
Today the market sits at 319 tracked availabilities: 260 direct lease and 59 sublease. Los Angeles leads with 133 total properties, the Inland Empire follows at 128, and Orange County holds 58.
Three markets, three different stories
This is where things get interesting. The regional averages mask three very different dynamics playing out in real time.
Orange County has gone quiet. OC added 25 of its 27 new listings between March and September of 2025. Then it basically stopped. Just 2 new listings have come to market since October. That is not a seasonal slowdown. That is a market that ran out of pipeline. With 58 total availabilities and the lowest supply ratio in the region at roughly 2 to 1, OC is the tightest of the three markets. But do not confuse tight supply with strength. Landlords are still cutting rates, and 9 of the 14 properties regionwide that removed their asking rate entirely are in Orange County. More on that below.
The Inland Empire is cutting the deepest. The IE recorded a median rate decrease of 13.3% over the past 12 months, nearly double the regional average. Its supply ratio stands at 4.2 to 1, the worst of the three markets. And the quarterly trend is telling: Q4 2025 appeared to stabilize with only 33% of rate changes being decreases. Then Q1 2026 came back at 91%. That is not stabilization. That is capitulation.
Los Angeles is the volume leader but the most diversified. LA contributed 97 of the 220 new listings over the past year and recorded 78 rate changes, the most of any market. But the activity is spread across dozens of submarkets rather than concentrated in a few. LA's median rate decrease of 8.0% sits right at the regional average, and its supply ratio of 3.3 to 1 is healthier than the IE. If you are looking for relative stability in this size range, LA comes closest.
The submarkets driving the numbers
Not all submarkets are contributing equally.
The Airport Area in the Inland Empire is the epicenter. It accounted for 43 new listings, 27 rate changes, and 101 total tracked changes over the past year. That is roughly 20% of all regional activity in one submarket. When something shifts in the IE Hundreds market, it is usually starting here.
Vernon logged 63 total changes and a median rate cut of 15.5%. It is churning. New space keeps coming in, and landlords keep cutting to compete.
Riverside contributed 17 new listings. The Santa Clarita Valley added 12. These are not headline markets, but they are adding meaningful inventory to the mix.
Rate cuts are accelerating, not stabilizing
Of the 185 rental rate changes recorded over the past year, 80% were decreases. The median cut across the region was approximately 7%. Every submarket followed the same direction.
Los Angeles: 78 rate changes, median decline of roughly 8%. Orange County: 54 changes, median decline near 6%. The Inland Empire: 53 changes, median decline around 13%.
Current average asking rates reflect this recalibration. The Inland Empire now averages $0.96 PSF on direct space and $1.02 on sublease. Los Angeles sits at $1.45 direct and $1.29 sublease. Orange County holds at $1.46 direct and $1.50 sublease.
The quarterly pattern is what matters most. The IE went from 33% rate decreases in Q4 2025 to 91% in Q1 2026. That is not a market finding a floor. That is a market repricing in real time.
What the concession data tells us
Our in house lease comp data from the past 90 days adds another layer. Across deals in this size range, we are seeing 5 to 6 months of free rent and $1 to $3 PSF in tenant improvement allowances as standard concession packages.
These are meaningful numbers. On a 5 year lease, 6 months of free rent represents a 10% discount on total occupancy cost before you even factor in the TI. And this is the baseline, not the outlier.
When you combine falling asking rates with expanding concessions, the effective cost of occupancy in this size range has come down significantly over the past year. Tenants who are not testing the market right now are leaving money on the table.
Hidden signals worth watching
Beyond the headline numbers, there are patterns in the data that do not show up in a standard market report.
Going dark as a strategy. 14 properties across the region removed their asking rate entirely over the past 12 months. 9 of those are in Orange County. These are not properties that forgot to update their listing. These are landlords making a deliberate choice to negotiate blind rather than advertise a declining number. When an owner pulls their rate, they are telling you they would rather negotiate from a position of ambiguity than anchor to a lower price in a falling market.
Multi space buildings are flooding submarkets. We identified 31 addresses with multiple space additions over the past year. A single 400,000 SF building subdivided into four 100K spaces shows up as four separate listings, creating the appearance of broad market availability in that submarket even though it is really one asset with one owner looking for tenants. This is particularly pronounced in the Airport Area and along the I 10 corridor.
Zero sublease absorption. Of the 13 confirmed leases over the past 12 months, every single one was direct space. Not a single sublease was absorbed. That tells you something about where tenant demand is focused and how sublease space is being perceived in this market.
New construction is still delivering. 23 new buildings totaling 3.1 million SF were added to the CoStar database over the tracking period. 15 of those are in Los Angeles. These are not future pipeline. These are completed buildings entering a market that already has a 4 to 1 supply ratio.
Brokerage reshuffling has a pattern. We tracked 24 leasing company changes across the region. Colliers picked up the most new assignments. CBRE, which led all firms in new listing activity with 49 additions, was also one of the most active in losing assignments. When owners start switching brokers at this pace, it signals dissatisfaction with velocity and positioning.
Absorption remains weak
Only 13 of the 64 space removals over the past 12 months were confirmed leases, accounting for about 900,000 SF of absorption. The other 51 removals were listings that were simply withdrawn from the market, totaling approximately 6.6 million SF.
That distinction matters. Withdrawn does not mean leased. In many cases it means an owner pulled a listing to reposition, retenant, or rethink strategy. The actual absorption number in this size range is far smaller than the removal count suggests.
Investment sale activity
On the capital markets side, 58 properties in this size range moved to active sale status over the past year, with 20 carrying a listed value. Total listed sale volume across those 20 properties came to approximately $788 million, averaging just under $39.4 million per deal. The Inland Empire led with 24 active listings, followed by Orange County at 20 and Los Angeles at 19.
The fact that owners are testing the investment sale market at this volume tells you something about sentiment. Some of this is portfolio rebalancing. Some of it is owners deciding they would rather sell into uncertainty than operate through it.
The counter narrative
It is worth noting what could change this trajectory. Prologis and other institutional landlords have publicly stated they expect the current supply wave to be digested within 12 to 24 months. If that thesis proves correct, the tenants signing deals today at these concession levels could look very smart when the cycle turns. Southern California logistics fundamentals remain strong over a longer horizon, and the current correction is creating opportunities for well positioned tenants and owners willing to act ahead of the turn.
The question is whether you believe the floor is here or still ahead of us. The data right now says we have not found it yet.
The bottom line
This market is defined by options and divergence. Tenants in the 100 to 200K range have more choices than they have had in years. But the opportunities are not uniform across the region. OC is tight on supply but playing pricing games. The IE is in full repricing mode. LA offers the broadest selection with the most moderate correction.
If you are a tenant, this is your window. The combination of falling rates, expanding concessions, and motivated landlords across all three markets creates leverage that did not exist 18 months ago.
If you are an owner, the data says it is time to get aggressive. The landlords who are pricing ahead of the market and offering real concession packages are the ones getting deals done. The ones waiting for a recovery are watching their competitors take their tenants.
We publish The Hundreds Report alongside this change data every month. If you want the full data set, the submarket level detail, or want to talk through what this means for your specific situation, reach out.
Justin Smith, SIOR | Senior Vice President
Lee & Associates
949.400.4786 | jbsmith@leeirvine.com
Grant La Bounty | Vice President | 562.310.2048
Chris Vassilian | Senior Associate | 949.422.8967