Industrial Insights — Q2 2026 Early Look at the Numbers

CBRE: 9.6% vacancy (−70 bps QoQ), 4.7M SF absorbed, $1.09/SF asking. JLL: 9.0% vacancy, 7.0M SF absorbed, $0.94/SF asking.

Pull the primary reports and Phoenix looks even stronger than the last issue had it, though the two research shops do not agree on the size of the quarter. Both agree on direction and both agree construction is rebuilding after two years of contraction. The new element worth flagging: an AI-focused occupier leased roughly 1.15M SF at Luke Field, and Fluidstack signed two Southwest Valley leases totaling 1.15M SF, alongside a 1.2M SF DHL commitment. Large-block availability is approaching near-zero per JLL, which is the real story behind the vacancy compression. The West Valley is by far where the big box DC deals are absorbing.

9.1% vacancy (−30 bps QoQ), 762,333 SF absorbed, $1.10/SF NNN asking, 3.9M SF under construction.

Vegas is still climbing out of the warehouse supply surge of the past two years, but Q2 came in softer than Q1: absorption of 762,333 SF was down from 1.54M SF the prior quarter, though still well above the 544,400 SF a year ago. The weighted asking rate eased to $1.10 from $1.18 in Q1, still above $1.03 a year ago. Deliveries were unusually light and the construction pipeline continues shrinking, 3.9M SF against 7.45M a year ago. Easing rents but a shrinking pipeline points to the market working off its overbuild rather than sliding into a deeper correction.

The only Q2 numbers out for Orange County so far are from an investment-sales shop with no leasing desk, so everything here is provisional until a leasing-focused source prints the report.

Provisional: 6.8% vacancy, +540,161 SF absorbed, $17.09/SF NNN (−6.3% YoY). For directional context only, their read is a market still correcting from the top but not evenly, with distribution and big-box vacancy roughly doubling toward 14% while warehouse and small-bay held tighter, under 6%. If a leasing source confirms that split, it is the familiar lesson that building size matters more than the market average here.

9.3% vacancy, −215,000 SF absorbed, $21.99/SF asking (−1.4% YoY).

Negative absorption for the quarter, with tenant caution and slower leasing continuing to define the market. Landlords are pricing down and adding concessions to stay competitive. The report frames this as normalization after several strong years rather than a structural problem, but it is the softest of the six reporting markets by net absorption. We are running a few larger manufacturing assignments here and finding the market slow, with landlords aggressively courting the handful of credit tenants that are active.

Vacancy still rising; hard Q2 figures not yet public.

The one market of the six where the story has not turned. Vacancy continues climbing as tenants relinquish space for newer post-2000 construction. The 50,000 to 200,000 SF segment weakened further on tenant consolidations. The drag traces back to trade: container throughput at the Northwest Seaport Alliance has trailed year-ago levels through the first half of 2026 on falling imports. Aerospace and clean-energy manufacturing demand is the one thing analysts point to as a possible offset later this year.

8.1% vacancy (−70 bps QoQ), 5.6M SF net absorption, 15.5M SF leased (a market record), $1.03/SF asking.

Last issue I had this market marked pending. Wrong call, and worth correcting properly. JLL's full report shows Q2 was the strongest quarter for new leasing in Inland Empire in recent history, 15.5M SF signed, with June alone accounting for 7.5M SF. Net absorption was 5.6M SF, a sharp reversal from a negative Q1. The more durable signal: for the first time in four years, year-to-date net absorption outpaced construction deliveries. Under construction sits at 13.1M SF, well below the historical quarterly average of 21.8M, so that supply discipline should keep compressing vacancy through year end. IE West is at $1.15 and IE East softer at $0.93, a spread worth knowing before you quote a blended number.