Industrial Insights

When More Freight Doesn’t Mean More Warehouse Demand—with Craig Fuller

With Craig Fuller - FreightWaves | Hosted by Justin Smith
Recorded October 23, 2026 · Published October 26, 2026 · 17-minute conversation

Episode chapters

1. 00:00 Why more freight can use existing warehouses
2. 00:15 Craig Fuller and FreightWaves
3. 01:16 Consumer demand versus industrial demand
4. 02:25 The pickup in warehouse leasing
5. 03:24 Freight activity and the shift inland
6. 04:14 More volume through existing warehouse networks
7. 05:30 Rail, flatbed and dry van
8. 06:49 Busy ports and Southern California leasing
9. 08:18 Orderly freight, rates and carrier capacity
10. 10:07 Working through excess warehouse supply
11. 11:23 Craig's case for AI, defense and energy
12. 12:45 Energy access and industrial location
13. 15:13 How long can the industrial cycle last?
14. 16:39 Political risk to the buildout
15. 17:12 Closing

Download English captions

More freight moving through a port sounds like good news for warehouse demand. But the relationship depends on who is moving the freight, where it is going, and how much room those companies already have.

I sat down with Craig Fuller, founder and CEO of FreightWaves, to connect what he sees in transportation with what we see in industrial real estate. We covered the recent pickup in leasing, the difference between consumer and industrial demand, and why activity can increase without creating a need for another building.

More volume can fit inside an existing network

Craig’s explanation starts with the customer. During the pandemic, demand was broad enough that companies of different sizes were competing for additional space. In the market he describes today, large retailers and importers account for much of the freight activity. Many already have warehouses and transportation networks in place.

That makes the distinction important: a company can fill unused capacity, move more product through its buildings, or send freight farther inland without expanding its coastal footprint. A busy port tells us goods are moving. It does not tell us whether the company handling those goods needs more square footage.

There is more than one freight market

Craig separates consumer activity from industrial activity and sees different conditions in each. He points to rail and flatbed as areas benefiting from industrial activity, while describing dry van as a weaker part of the market because of softer consumer freight demand.

For an industrial owner or occupier, the question is which part of that activity connects to the business and building in front of you. A manufacturer, a retailer and a logistics provider can experience the same economy differently. A national freight headline may miss that distinction.

The destination matters as much as the port

We also discussed why stronger imports have not translated into the same level of warehouse activity in Southern California. Craig’s view is that established importers can move goods inland through intermodal networks and existing facilities. He sees more industrial freight activity originating in the Midwest.

For me, that raises a useful question when evaluating local demand: is the freight being stored and handled here, or is it passing through on its way to another market? Those are different uses of a logistics network, with different implications for real estate.

Leasing demand and new supply need to be read together

I brought the conversation back to the pickup we have been seeing in warehouse leasing and the process of working through excess new construction. Better leasing activity is encouraging, but the next question is how much available space it absorbs: and how much new supply follows it.

Craig also explains why freight rates can rise even when demand is tepid: available transportation capacity can shrink. That is another reason to separate price, volume and capacity before drawing a conclusion about the direction of the market.

AI, defense and energy are part of Craig’s industrial thesis

Craig identifies AI data centers, defense spending and energy as three drivers he believes can support industrial activity even when consumer demand softens. He also argues that access to energy matters to the location of heavy industry and identifies political opposition to power and data-center development as a risk to the buildout.

These are Craig’s views on what is supporting the cycle. They are useful questions to bring into a market discussion, but they do not establish that every industrial building or location benefits equally.

What I would ask before translating freight into a real estate decision

Which customers are driving the volume? Is the increase sustained? Does the operator have room in its current buildings? Where does the freight actually need to stop? And would the next increment of growth require more space, or a different way of using the space it already has?

Those questions help connect a transportation signal to an actual leasing or location decision. That is the part of this conversation I think industrial owners, occupiers and advisors will find most useful.

Watch or listen to the full conversation with Craig Fuller on Industrial Insights.

Four questions for your next operating meeting

04:14: Can the next increment of volume fit in the existing operation?
Ask for usable pallet positions, throughput limits and service requirements before assuming additional square footage.

05:30: Which freight mode serves the business being evaluated?
Compare the relevant customer and commodity mix; an aggregate headline does not describe every tenant.

06:49: Where does the freight actually stop?
Separate freight passing through a port from inventory stored, handled or distributed in the local market.

11:23: Is this construction demand or recurring operating demand?
Craig’s investment thesis raises the question; this episode does not quantify post-construction freight or leasing demand.

What this episode does not establish

Freight activity alone does not establish a local requirement for additional warehouse space. Craig’s forward-looking assessments are his views at recording. The conversation does not quantify freight demand after AI construction, establish a statistical freight-to-leasing lead time, or independently validate every energy and geopolitical assertion. Charts supply broad economic context, not proof of a causal relationship.